July 7, 2022
I’m hearing lots of talk of the market headed towards “parity.” This is a classic term for could go up, could go down. It has done both in the past. So, what are we as investors to do? Since digital technology has led the rise and fall of the last cycle I believe it will be an older technology to lead the next. I think we are going to start seeing the rise of physical mining properties and royalties. However, because these companies are generally high operating cost there will be substantial loans issued in the short term. That shortage of cash in the banks will drop their valuations due to the lack of appearance of cash on hand. It will show as an upside down operation cost to invest in longer term companies. Making the share buy back, of the banks stock, the x1.5 play. Because, the standard expectation of market return is significantly lower than the going rate of inflation to date. It would seem the operation cost of tomorrow is slated to be lower. If that is true, and humans cost more to operate, that means there will be significant automation put in place. That automation has had it’s run in development dollars (aforementioned tech stocks). That tells me there are already companies in tow waiting to tie these companies together. The cost of building these automated machines will reduce the cash on the books for the automation companies, thereby making them the x1.25 play for the mining company. Then when the money hits the books for selling those machines the share price goes up for the x1.125 play so automation makes enough to show good numbers year to year. The short term investors that hop off here take the x1.0625, coupled with inflation, your return will look more like 8% rather than 6%. However, reinvesting in the same company or similar technology will most likely put you at the forefront for the x1.5. There are many cycles running in and out of tandem with each other and this is just one very small example. So in short I think the market may “parody,” it’s self. As a general rule of thumb for moving into this market filled with uncertainty my opinion is to trickle in and trickle out.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor and this is not financial advice. I am an investor, in many markets. My opinions shared here are just that, opinions, based on years of market research. Any and all data used for baseline calculations are formed by myself and I have taken no money for sharing my opinions.
Risk Tolerance: Do not invest what you can not afford to lose.
Risk Intolerance: What are you spending your money/time on. Is it worth the value that you are extracting? Do you smoke? Is there a cheaper brand to cut cost for a bit (not a smoking or gambling endorsement, but often times Native Reservations often have much better prices, but it ain’t gonna be “your brand.”) Do you stop for coffee every morning and order the same thing everyday all the while wishing you weren’t “stuck in line,” your not stuck, you’re stalling. Even with a decent tip for your favorite barista, buying an affordable self timer coffee machine and setting up at home should start making a substantial difference in about a week. If it’s coffee for two or more! Forget about it, that’s only days, even with all your favorite accoutrements. My opinion for all that money saved is buy stock in a coffee company or if you are so inclined, commodities surrounding the coffee industry you want to use in the future.
mvousdesign 